Twelve Trends for the Church in 2021

Recently a Tom Rainer article predicting twelve future trends caught my eye (Church Answers email on 12-21-20). As I read through the list it struck me as being mostly on the mark. I am sharing these twelve trends with personal commentary that I feel takes into consideration our Northwest context.

 Yes, 2020 has been a tough year for ministry on many fronts, the most difficult, in my opinion, being the pandemic. On the other hand, ministry in the Northwest has never been a cakewalk. We do not live in the Bible-belt, we live in the “Independent, Secular, Outdoors Loving, Wild Northwest.” It’s one of the toughest places in all of the U.S. for leading a healthy church to engage in effective mission. But, with the help of our mighty God it is possible to thrive in a tough spiritual landscape. My prayer for our churches is that 2021 will hold promise for re-vitalized ministry as we pursue Christ and His mission more fully.  ~ Charles Revis, Executive Minister

 Rainer introduces the twelve trends with these comments: “While predicting future trends is never a precise effort, we do see enough data points to suggest these twelve trends are potentially powerful movements that will affect congregations, some for better and some for worse. They are not listed in any particular order.”

 1.  Growth of co-vocational ministry. It will be increasingly common for churches to have fewer full-time staff. Some will hold other jobs because churches cannot afford full-time pay and benefits. Some of the staff will choose to be co-vocational so they can have a marketplace ministry. Both of these factors will result in a massive number of staff moving from full-time to co-vocational.

Revis Reaction: Rainer focuses primarily on staff, assuming most churches have staff, which is not the case unless your church is over 75 in attendance. I’ve been observing this bi-vocational trend unfolding for more than a decade among our smaller churches. As churches decline so does the income. Increased costs in health insurance make a challenging situation even worse. However, shifting to co-vocational ministry has a positive side. Pastors who choose to be co-vocational often have greater opportunities for connecting with the unchurched. The challenge for churches is to shift expectations of their pastor when the position is no longer fulltime. I expect the trend for bi-vocational pastors among small churches to grow.

2. Baby boomers will be greater in number than children in the majority of churches. This demographic shift has three causes. First, the birthrate is declining. Second, the boomer generation is large in number, second only to millennials. Third, increasing longevity means boomers will be around for a while. If a church is not considering what senior adult involvement looks like, it’s already behind the curve.

Revis Reaction: This may be an overlooked trend in many of our churches because so many are already made up mostly of the builder and boomer generations. Rather than taking this phenomenon for granted it would be wise for churches to press into being multi-generational. This calls for an extra measure of give and take so that all generations are represented in worship preferences and serving on ministry teams. Multiple groups, micro-churches and house churches are strategic ways to minister to all generations, too. Least of all, it means helping boomers maximize their efforts in reaching their peers before they come to the end of their lives without Jesus.

3. The micro-church movement begins in about 5,000 North American churches. A new manifestation of the multi-site movement will be multi-site campuses with 50 or fewer congregants. The early adopter churches, estimated to be around 5,000, will define this movement and become the models for future micro-churches.

Revis Reaction: We’ve been stressing this trend for the last three years through Fresh Expressions. The House Church approach is also an excellent model for planting micro-churches. A church does not need to be large to be multi-site. If your church is interested in any of these micro-church approaches give me a call and we can discuss options for your church.

4. Digital church strategies will complement in-person strategies. We’ve seen some leaders advocate a “digital first” strategy while some insist on an “in-person first” approach. As we have followed thousands of churches, we are seeing more strategies where neither approach is a priority over the other. Church leaders are moving toward blending these two important areas in a complementary fashion. We will be looking at this reality in future articles.

Revis Reaction: I completely agree with Rainer. Every church, regardless of size, is now offering some form of online worship and online community. Two years ago we only had one or two churches with an online streaming presence. How quickly we adapt when we are desperate. I strongly recommend that every church think “both/and” when it comes to their online presence. Think of the online community as another “service” or “campus”, just as you would if you’ve been offering two in-person services. This requires an additional effort in connecting with the folks who will participate primarily online, but the extra work can prove to be fruitful for outreach and growth.

5. The number of adopted churches will begin to catch the number of closed churches. This trend is very positive. While we are not seeing a decline in the numbers of churches on the precipice of closing, we are seeing a major trend develop as more of these very sick churches get adopted by healthier churches. This development means more neighborhoods will have a gospel witness.

Revis Reaction: I would love to see this trend grow in our Region. The geographical distance between churches makes this tougher. Also, some folks will not relinquish their church to another until it is too late. In the last two weeks True Hope Church, Boise has adopted New Directions Church in Nampa. I am excited about the potential fruit this adoption will produce in the coming months. If your church is interested in adopting another church, or would like to explore being adopted, please give me a call.

6. Church fostering will move into the early adoption stage. Church fostering takes place when a healthier church helps a less healthy church for a defined period, usually less than a year. We anticipate 30,000 churches (meaning 15,000 foster churches and 15,000 fostering churches) will enter into this relationship in 2021. Again, this trend portends well for the overall gospel witness of local congregations.

Revis Reaction: My reaction to this statement is similar to what I expressed about church adoptions. Healthier churches have great potential for helping struggling churches. The greatest hurdle to this in our context is “control.” Many small churches that are near death struggle to give over control to a healthier church, or receive advice from another church. Building trust between the two is critical, along with a renewed commitment to gospel witness for this to happen.

7. Once the pandemic stabilizes and the number of cases decline, churches’ average worship attendance will be down 20% to 30% from pre-pandemic levels. As of today, we are seeing quicker recovery among smaller churches. If this pattern continues, churches over 250 in attendance (before the pandemic) will have the greatest challenge to recover.

 Revis Reaction: Generally speaking, I think this will be true.

 8. The new definition of a large church will be 250 and more in average worship attendance. These “new” large churches will be in the top ten percent of all churches in North America. Before the pandemic, a church would need an average worship attendance of 400 to be in the top ten percent.

Revis Reaction: In the Northwest this trend has been true for at least the last 20 years, or more. The Northwest has always been a more challenging spiritual landscape than other locations in the U.S. Therefore, larger churches are more rare.

 9. Denominations will begin their steepest decline in 2021. In terms of membership and average worship attendance, denominations overall will begin a greater rate of decline. This negative trend can be attributed to three factors. First, the churches in the denominations will decline more rapidly. That factor is the single greatest contributor. Second, there will be fewer new churches in the denominations. Third, the combination of church closures and church withdrawals from denominations will be slightly greater than previous years.

Revis Reaction: Generally, I agree with this observation. Of greater concern to me is the loss of appreciation for the strength and stability that an association of churches committed to the Gospel and mutual-resourcing offers. I’ve said it before, and I will say it again, “We are better together than apart.”

 10. Giving in churches will decline 20 percent to 30 percent from pre-pandemic levels. For the most part, the decline in congregational giving will mirror the decline in attendance in churches.

Revis Reaction: This makes sense as well, and comes as no surprise. This trend can be counter-acted by having a clear mission, communicating it relentlessly and celebrating stories that demonstrate the church is attaining its mission.

11. Overall conversion growth in local churches will improve. This indicator is mostly positive. We define conversion growth as the average worship attendance of the church divided by the number of people who became followers of Christ and active in the church in one year. For example, if a church has 20 conversions and an average worship attendance of 200, its conversion rate is 10:1 (200 divided by 10). Lower is better with conversion rates. We say “mostly positive” for this trend, because some of the improvement in the conversion rate is due to lower worship attendance.

Revis Reaction: I would love for this trend to become our reality. However, this will only come to fruition by giving more attention to evangelism and outreach. Churches will need to help their people learn to invest in relationships with unchurched friends, which have the potential to lead to conversations about Jesus. Churches who fully embrace the virtues of being in Christ (faith, hope and love) will have a more compelling witness within their communities. Unfortunately, inward-focused churches that keep evangelism and outreach low on their priority list will see little conversion growth.

 12. Nearly nine out of ten North American congregations will self-define as needing revitalization. Though this trend is troubling, it does indicate at least one silver lining in the cloud. Congregational leaders, particularly pastors, are more open and willing to admit they need help.

Revis Reaction: I agree with this trend. Yes, it is troubling. And, yes, we need congregational leaders to face their reality and reach out for help. Mission Northwest exists for the purpose of “resourcing and developing churches that connect people to Jesus Christ.” Let us know how we can help in the midst of these challenging days.